In both the above two main themes there is absolutely no possibility of dialogue with ETI. Life is either very close but too primitive, or it is advanced but very far away; and by implication far back in time so may not exist anymore anyway. This is an unacceptable narrative that constrains the potential solution space and certainly appears to set out to neglect the possibility of intelligence being here now - even the possibility of it is kicked into the long grass. Yet, the suggestion of an ETI presence within or nearby to our Solar System is a perfectly reasonable hypothesis upon which to form a scientific research programme. That is also the basis of Arthur C Clarke’s “2001: A Space Odyssey” and the discovery of a Sentinel probe. The physicist James Benford has proposed searching for co-orbiting probes for example [James Benford, “Looking for Lurkers: Co-orbiters as SETI Observables”, The Astronomical Journal, 158, 4, 2019].
In a recent paper this author has demonstrated that with the rise of our technological astronomical machines, in addition to the maturation of our advanced propulsion technology, if any ETI exists within 100 - 200 ly of Sol, then first contact would occur within the next 100 - 200 years. By implication if they existed within 10 - 20 ly then contact would occur within 10 - 20 years. This analysis neglected the possibility of them being here as a thought experiment. [K. F. Long, “The Temporal Contact Equation: An Estimate for the Time of First Contact with ETI”, JBIS, 76(11), 279-282, November 2023.]
In another recent paper by this author, a calculation was conducted using the diffusion equation to show that if any advanced ETI civilisation constructs von Neumann machines, self-replicating AI probes, that it is possible for them to cover the entire galaxy in a timespan as short as hundreds of thousands of years. [K. F. Long, “Galactic Crossing Times for Robotic Probes Driven by Inertial Confinement Fusion Propulsion”, JBIS, 75(9), 118-126, September 2022.]. This was limited to transport speeds of order 0.1-0.15c based on a fusion propulsion capability. If ETI had access to propulsion technology that was much faster, especially approaching (or even exceeding the speed of light as in ftl) then the galaxy could be covered in a much more rapid time frame.
In an online video the physicist Freeman Dyson tells a sweet story of when he went to visit Enrico Fermi in Chicago to discuss some pseudo scalar theory of pions and how well or not they matched to experiment [see: ‘Fermi’s rejection of our work’ on You Tube] . Fermi was not impressed and quoted the physicist John von Neumann who had said “with four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk” and on this basis Fermi did not find the numerical agreement with experiment profound. Seeing how von Neumann and Fermi think, one might borrow their reasoning and similarly articulate that with two parameters I can construct a narrative. Such a narrative is demonstrated in the figure of this post shown above.
In contrast to the left side of the green line, for the items in the bottom right corner of the green line in the figure appears to be considered out of bounds or the domain of the uninformed observer, the amateur, the uneducated, the ignorant, the fool or even the crazy. If anyone conducts research in this area or proposes search strategies along these lines, they can expect a barrage of ridicule to land at their door. This is especially the case for established scientists, where ostracization from the community awaits and so with it the possibility of research grant funding. This is an effective no-go area for scientists unless you want to have your work downgraded to science fiction.
To illustrate the level of fear, I myself was reluctant to post this article (and others and I am currently writing) because even now I am concerned it will lead to the rejection of research grants I am currently pursuing and desperately need since I am entirely unfunded and unsupported. This is my reality as a professional scientist, working in isolation. Yet as a scientist, our highest ethic must be the pursuit of truth despite the consequences this may bring.
Indeed, such a policy of ridicule would be consistent with the famous Robertson panel report in 1953 which due to fears over causing mass hysteria and panic over the possibility that the Russians might capitalise on any observed phenomena in the skies, after objects were reported by the general public. This report was published two years after the famous Fermi lunch and two years before his death. [H. P Robertson, “Report of Scientific Advisory Panel on Unidentified Flying Objects”, Convened by Office of Scientific Intelligence, CIA, 14 – 18 January 1953.]
It is certainly the case today that the SETI Institute, and the SETI community stays well clear of the bottom right corner of the figure above. ETI is never close if it is intelligent and neither should such a hypothesis be considered reasonable. Instead we see phrases in their articles like “in a distant galaxy far far away”. In discussions over aliens one will often see phrases from the media like ‘little green men’ as a term of derision. One only has to read a popular magazine article by a member of the SETI Institute or by the wider media to see this sort of language being used, often accompanied by laughing. Due to events in my personal life yet to be articulated, I feel it is necessary to call a spade a spade. To me, this feels like a propaganda campaign designed to promote a particular narrative that has acted to suppress original and creative scientific enquiry into the unknown.
Many years ago, circa 2013, Jill Tarter was quoted as saying at a San Francisco Science Fiction convention “The Starship is effectively impossible” by a reliable witness who was present at the meeting and informed this author who wrote the quote down. There is in fact hundreds of published peer reviewed technical journal papers by outstanding academics that shows the opposite is in fact the case going back as far as the 1950s [Les Shepherd, “Interstellar Flight”, JBIS, 11, 1952]; yet this research by highly qualified people is apparently ignored. This illustrates the mindset of an organisation that has historically focussed on a narrow solution space for the possibilities of intelligence in the Universe, but also actively controls the narrative. I personally find this behaviour, to effectively act as the Gate Keepers on any speculations about intelligent life, to be highly frustrating. Admittance of individuals into that community requires some degree of compliance to the narrative.
As a test, a proposal was also recently made to the SETI Institute by this author to pursue a research grant under this subject matter titled ‘Characterising Propulsion Emission Signatures from Advanced Technological Civilizations’. The grant was rejected without explanation or debrief. This is despite the fact that the subject proposal was reasonable, the amount of finance requested was small, and the author well qualified to undertake the research having published dozens of peer reviewed research papers relating to advanced propulsion. Even now, we still do not know who won the SETI Institute technosignature grants.
I simply wanted to propose a survey of the expected emission signatures from different types of propulsion engines and then on the basis of that make recommendations for astronomical surveys in terms of wavelengths, frequencies, energies, power. For example, if an advanced fusion engine or antimatter engine was operating within a light year of Sol, we had a chance of detecting it. It is also perplexing since the power spectrum associated with advanced propulsion systems is orders of magnitude higher than what we might expect from deep space communication systems [R. Zubrin, “Detection of Extraterrestrial Civilizations via the Spectral Signature of Advanced Interstellar Spacecraft”, Progress in the Search for Extraterrestrial Life ASP Conference Series, 74, 1995]. Therefore the rejection of such research is even more curious.
Although I will acknowledge that the window of using advanced propulsion systems may be limited, since any civilization that advanced to a high technological state may develop technologies way beyond these capabilities [N. S. Kardashev, “Transmission of Information by Extraterrestrial Civilizations”, Soviet Astronomy AJ, 8, 2, 1964].
To illustrate the dogma adopted by members of the SETI community, here is some content from a recent article published by Space.Com on 17th April 2024 where the SETI Institute Director Bill Diamond is quoted in reference to the UAP phenomena that is currently under discussions in US Congressional hearings: “The idea that the government is keeping something like this secret is just totally absurd. There’s no motivation to do so” and “We don’t have any evidence of any credible source that would indicate the presence of alien technology in our skies. And we never have”. Currently, there are active scientific studies to detect UAP phenomena under way [Wesley A Watters et al., “The Scientific Investigation of Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP) using Multimodal Ground-Based Observatories”, Journal of Astronomical Instrumentation, 12, 1, 2023].
I will state for the record, and without breaching any national security oath, as someone that has worked on highly classified government programmes within the UK and US, that governments absolutely can keep secrets and Bill Diamond does not know what he is talking about. This mantra is often also adopted by the influential astronomer Neil deGrass Tyson and is utterly wrong and is an opinion expressed by people that never appear to have worked in government programmes of this nature.
Diamond further states: “Statistically speaking, every single star in the sky has one or more planets around it….That implies the existence of tens of billions of potentially habitable worlds in our galaxy alone…So indeed, the statistical probability that we are alone in the Universe is zero. Surely there is life beyond Earth”.
He further states: “But the presence, both in space and time, as well as proximity, of advanced alien civilizations is another matter completely. There are innumerable variables, all of which in the sciences of astrobiology, planetary science, astronomy and astrophysics, we are trying to figure out”.
So even with the most conservative assumption of one planet per star, Diamond admits that statistically the possibility of intelligence in the galaxy or beyond is high. Yet, despite admitting this, in terms of ETI being here today, he just won’t go there, and note that the emphasis is always on “Beyond Earth”. It has to be either close but microbial or intelligent but extremely far away and out of reach. He appears to be trapped within an oxymoron of logic in his own reasoning.
This presents a dichotomy where an institution exists that professes to search for intelligent life but does not give moderate funding support to proposals that have some chance of detecting it. It is also an institution that won’t even consider the possibility that ETI may be here today. This is a mystery wrapped in an enigma, sufficient to garner one’s attention as a red flag.
For sure, as scientists we must hold our objectivity. We must withhold jumping to any conclusions until the evidence that presents itself becomes undeniable. As the astronomer Carl Sagan once said “extraordinary claims, requires extraordinary evidence”. When claims are made we have to dig deeper into our scepticism and it becomes a battle between the heart that wants it to be true and the mind that intellectualises the parameters.
Yet, I have a feeling that very soon the SETI Institute is going to be the outsiders in the discussions about ETI if they do not open up to the possibility that not only may ETI have been here in the past, but they could be here now today. It is as if they are in a room and people are trying to tell them there is a huge elephant standing behind them and they just can’t see it….or they won’t see it….because that is not the narrative to be followed.
In a recent fund raising post the SETI Institute declared: “The SETI Institute continues to lead the charge in exploring the cosmos, driven by our shared curiosity and determination to discover what—or who—may be out there..”. It also claims on its web site that it is “the only research organization solely devoted to searching for and studying life and intelligence beyond Earth”. I think it is time this claim for being the leader in exploring the cosmos and discovering what/who is out there should be challenged. No doubt I am going to get attacked for this statement and I have experienced this before from followers of the SETI community, who surrounded me like a pack of wolves for merely daring to raise a criticism of their thinking. That is after all, the conduct of a cult following. But okay, as a scientist making statements in a public domain I accept that others have a right to defend themselves.
Despite my criticism, this author wants to acknowledge the important research that has been done by the bread and butter members of the SETI community over the years and this post should not be seen as a criticism of individual research papers which contribute to the entire debate over what may be possible. Those research papers have enormous value. However, I find myself asking about the framing of the discussion and whether this has been a deliberate strategy to control the narrative over the potential of an ETI presence on Earth today and for which may have held back scientific progress in the search for intelligent life.
I have not come to this conclusion lightly, but through much thought over many years of being a researcher in interstellar studies but also my interactions with the SETI community which I would not describe as particularly welcoming. This is also based upon personal objective observations that are yet to be articulated in the public domain but I intend to do so in the near future. Elephants indeed! I end this post by stating my view clearly, that the SETI Institute is wrong to deny the possibility that there may indeed be an ETI presence today and I would suggest it starts considering this possibility if it aims to remain relevant, giving what is likely over the horizon in the very near future. For it is my stated opinion, that the truth may already be at our door.